Residential construction, land use and the environment. Simulations for The Netherlands using a GIS-based land use model

The present generation of geographical information systems supports strategic planning processes in several ways. They are able to store, manage and analyse the enormous amount of data needed. Another more output-oriented use is the visualisation of the diversity of locational preferences and perspectives of different interest groups and stakeholders. For the simulation of (more indirect) effects of autonomous or planned developments land use modelling can be applied. A step further is the definition and implementation of a set of indicators that show the impact of land use change on different aspects of space and the environment in order to facilitate the (political) discussions, that are an essential part of strategic planning. This paper focuses on the application of a GIS-based simulation model in the framework of the Fifth National Physical Planning Report in the Netherlands. The simulation model generates future land use in the Netherlands given several growth scenarios and a spatial strategy that comprises both foreseen strategic and autonomous developments. Special attention is paid to residential construction because this is expected to be one of the major driving forces in land use changes. An analysis of residential construction for the period 1980-1995 reveals that residential construction has been relatively concentrated in areas close to existing urban areas. New town policies also played a rather strong role during this period. The presence of natural areas (woods and wetlands) plays a significant though limited role in the choice where to build new dwellings. The simulation results for the year 2020 are used to assess the effects of land use changes for a range of environmental indicators